Here are stats and commentary for holiday retail and the outlook for 2026.
Record Holiday Dollar Sales
U.S. holiday retail sales (November–December 2025) exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, marking a historic milestone. Growth, projected by the National Retail Federation at 3.7 %–4.2 % over 2024, reflects continued consumer spending despite persistent economic headwinds.A meaningful portion of this growth was price-driven. Higher average transaction values lifted dollar sales even as unit volumes lagged. Mastercard SpendingPulse data shows 3.9 % year-over-year growth in total retail sales (in-store and online) from November 1 through December 21.
Our data shows declining foot traffic throughout Q4, resulting in three consecutive months of lower unit sales. Demand softened even during peak holiday season.
Independent Jewelers
- Gross Sales: Independent jewelers posted a 5 % increase in gross sales, driven largely by a 12 % rise in average retail prices, influenced by higher commodity costs (notably gold) and tariff impacts.
- Diamond Category: Despite an 11 % increase in average retail sale, diamond jewelry saw a 4 % decline in gross sales and a 13 % drop in unit sales, indicating price increases alone did not offset weaker demand.
- Colored Stones: Colored stones outperformed, finishing 3 % ahead of last December, supported by a 20 % increase in average retail prices.
- Sterling Silver: The sterling silver category declined sharply, with gross sales down 8 % and units down 17 %, despite elevated average prices.
Outlook
Record holiday sales in 2025 were driven primarily by higher prices, not higher demand. Declining foot traffic and unit sales point to a more cautious consumer beneath the surface. As retail jewelers look toward 2026, success will depend less on price increases and more on strategic category management, disciplined inventory decisions and maximing conversion from a smaller, more intentional shopper base. |
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